Weekend Forecast for 3/8/2014 – 3/9/2014:
From Dan Tackett, Sugar Bowl National Ski Patrol Meteorologist Extraordinaire
Updated Thursday, March 6th, 1:15 pm.
The pattern has been active of late, but not enough to bring big accumulations. Light to moderate accumulations have been the norm, especially with snow levels on the high side during the last week. A week ago Saturday morning, accumulations were on the low end of the 6-12 inches I was predicting. By Sunday, another system was moving in, but elevated snow levels brought rain and rain/snow mix to limit accumulations.
A system scheduled to drop precipitation last Monday night with very high snow levels surprised us all when the snow levels lowered just enough to bring 6-10 inches to the resort. I had forecasted none for the base and few inches higher up due to the 7000 foot snow level. However, the snow levels dropped just enough to bring snow throughout the resort. As little as a 500 foot snow level change can make the difference between no accumulations and accumulations.
The systems that have followed Monday night’s event have been warmer and pushed the snow levels even higher. Accumulations have been scarce since, with mostly rain or a mix falling. Wednesday night brought another round of mostly rain, but temperatures are a little cooler on Thursday. A few afternoon showers should fall as snow, but with limited precipitation, any accumulations will be extremely light.
A high pressure ridge quickly builds on Friday to bring a brief dry spell. Mostly sunny conditions are expected both Friday and Saturday. Temperatures on Saturday will be mild with highs in the 40s to near 50.
Another weather system with sub-tropical origins will approach on Sunday. Most activity will be to our north, but some precipitation is expected to enter our area around the afternoon. The bulk of the precipitation is expected overnight. With snow levels close to 8000 feet during the day, some rain showers may develop in the afternoon and continue into the evening. Snow levels lower overnight, but probably not enough to bring accumulations to the base by Monday morning. Light accumulations are possible on the higher slopes.
Snow showers and possible rain/snow mix at the base are expected on Monday. Shower chances decrease by sunset as a high pressure ridge again begins to build. This ridge is likely to keep the storm track out of Northern California for the rest of the week.
Sugar Bowl Snow Depths as of Thursday morning, March 6th:
Station A (near the base of Crow’s Nest Chair): 15 inches, up 4 inches since the previous Thursday. Last year at this time: 33 inches.
Station B (between Calif St & Station B runs): 80 inches, up 10 inches since the previous Thursday. Last year at this time: 108 inches.
Current Truckee River Drainage Snowpack Water Equivalent: 34%
Weekend Forecast for 3/8/2014-3/9/2014:
Mostly sunny on Saturday. Lows in the mid 20s to around 30, highs in the 40s to near 50. Light morning easterly winds turning southwesterly and remaining relatively light in the afternoon.
Clouds increase on Sunday with rain shower chances in the afternoon. Snow or a rain/snow mix will be restricted to the highest slopes and peaks. Lows in the upper 20s to low 30s, highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Afternoon southwest winds to 20 mph, to 35 mph on the ridges.
Weekend Travel Weather:
No problems at all Friday through Sunday morning. Wet roads possible Sunday afternoon and evening, but no snow or ice.
A few snow showers on Monday, then turning dry for the rest of the week.
Have a Great Weekend,